In recent years, the term ‘artificial intelligence’ or ‘AI’ has begun to appear almost everywhere. The field of AI is developing at unprecedented rates, and as it does so, discussions over its potential benefits and risks are becoming commonplace. In particular, the question of how AI will affect employment has been at the forefront of public debate, in many instances generating large waves of panic. However, the future of job security in the new AI world is not necessarily as bleak as we may be led to believe.
AI, in its simplest form, is about teaching machines to learn. It can be used to perform tasks otherwise carried out by humans, and can make use of vast amounts of data to solve problems beyond human capabilities. AI is already well-integrated into human society, and lies behind many online services and network platforms such as Amazon, Facebook and TikTok. Fundamentally, AI is a tool for augmentation; if used correctly, it has the potential to increase efficiency and productivity across a vast range of fields.
EMPLOYMENT FEARS
Yet as AI proliferates, it is generating mounting concern over the future of employment and job security. What will become of humans in a world where machines can outperform us at our own jobs?
Whilst fears over job-displacing technology are by no means a new phenomenon (the Luddites of 19th century Britain are an obvious example), AI poses a distinct threat to employment. The development of technology that possesses human-like intelligence, and can learn and evolve as it carries out tasks, will render obsolete a number of skills previously thought to be uniquely human. This will inevitably cause some level of upheaval in the jobs market. In a widely cited paper by Frey and Osborne (2013) it was stated that 47% of tasks performed by US workers could be automated away within two decades, and white-collar clerical roles are thought to be especially vulnerable (The Economist, 2023).
Although it is clear that AI will disrupt and transform a plethora of industries around the world, there is arguably not as much cause for concern as public rhetoric currently suggests. AI will likely complement more jobs than it replaces, boosting productivity and increasing output. For example, the automation of repetitive manual tasks that require little creativity or critical thinking will allow labour to focus on more meaningful, high-value tasks. It also offers a unique opportunity for human-machine partnerships, allowing us to capitalise on AI’s immense data-processing capabilities to solve problems for which answers have, until now, been out of human reach (Kissinger et al, 2022). Furthermore, history teaches us that innovation drives job creation; in fact, 60% of the US workforce today are working in jobs that did not exist in 1940 (Goldman Sachs, 2023). So whilst some jobs will be lost to automation, AI will open up opportunities for new forms of employment that will ultimately make the whole economy more productive.
What’s more, current unemployment statistics do not reconcile with the idea of AI stealing jobs. In the last decade the unemployment rate in the developed world has halved, and countries such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, which have the highest rates of automation, have some of the lowest unemployment figures globally (The Economist, 2023). This would seem to suggest that, with the implementation of the correct policies, AI can indeed actively promote, rather than undermine, employment.
GOING FORWARD
It is impossible to predict with certainty the outcomes of a technology as fundamentally unpredictable as AI. Whilst some jobs likely will be displaced, or at least partially displaced, by AI, new job opportunities will also emerge. As a result, there should be two main focuses going forward to minimise the disruption that AI will cause: retraining and redistribution.
Retraining and re-skilling of the workforce will be essential to enable those displaced by automation to transition into new sectors. This matters both on an individual level, so that nobody is left without the skills to find employment, and on an economy-wide level, so that labour can move to where it is most efficient to maximise productivity. This will require governments and corporations alike to commit to developing relevant and accessible training schemes that keep pace with the changing demands that AI imposes on the jobs market. Combined with this, taxation and redistribution will play an important role in mitigating any AI-induced structural unemployment. For example, Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of leading AI firm DeepMind, emphasises that increased capital tax could be used to fund the transitional retraining period. It is important that governments and large corporations making use of AI engage in frequent dialogue as early as possible, so that the necessary regulation and oversight can be put in place before AI develops beyond the point of human control.
AI will undoubtedly change the global economic landscape, altering the way we organise industries, create policies, and supply and demand labour. Whilst disruption to the job market seems inevitable, it need not be catastrophic. Provided the appropriate laws and limits are put into effect before the situation develops beyond the point of regulation, AI could enable an inclusive restructuring of employment that drives efficiency, productivity and economic growth. This new AI era presents us with a unique opportunity to transform the global economic order and improve lives. It remains to be seen how we will make use of such an opportunity, but we should not abandon hope just yet.
Article by Lara Gigov (Editor-in-Chief)
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